What’s Ahead for Express Entry in 2024?
So far in 2024, IRCC has resulted in 7,000 fewer Invitations to apply (ITAs) compared to the first half of 2023. However, this needs to be viewed in the context of IRCC’s immigration plan. The plan for 2024 sets a target of 110,770 Express Entry landings, up from 82,800 in 2023. These targets are for actual landings, when new permanent residents arrive in Canada or complete their transition to permanent residency.
Since it takes time to process applications and for candidates to make the move, many ITAs issued in late 2023 will account for landings in 2024. IRCC aims to process Express Entry applications within six months, so the ITAs issued now will significantly impact next year’s targets.
In 2023, IRCC issued 110,226 ITAs to meet their target. With a higher target for 2024, it’s likely that we’ll see more frequent or larger draws in the latter half of the year to make up for the current shortfall
What Accounts for the Reduction in ITAs Thus Far in 2024?
Several factors contribute to the decrease in ITAs issued in the initial portion of 2024 compared to 2023. The implementation of category-based selections has diversified the pool, potentially making it more competitive and raising CRS cut-off scores. These category-based draws, targeting specific skills and qualifications like healthcare and STEM, can also lead to fewer ITAs being available for general draws.
Moreover, the one-month hiatus in draws could have contributed to the lower number of ITAs granted. This pause might have been used to adjust the system to the newly implemented category-based selections or to manage the backlog of applications.
Potential Implications for the Rest of 2024
Given the current trend, IRCC may need to issue a higher number of ITAs in the latter half of 2024 to meet its immigration targets. Here are a few potential scenarios:
- Increased Draw Frequency: To catch up, IRCC might hold draws more frequently than it has in the first half of the year.
- Larger Draw Sizes: Each draw could invite more candidates to ensure the yearly target is met.
- Targeted Draws: We might see more targeted draws for specific categories, which could help in meeting the immigration goals for high-demand occupations.
What This Means for Applicants
For those in the Express Entry candidate pool, these changes mean it’s more important than ever to maximize CRS scores. Candidates should consider ways to improve their scores, such as gaining additional work experience, improving language test results, or securing a provincial nomination.
Additionally, being aware of the new category-based draws is crucial. Candidates with skills in high-demand areas like healthcare, STEM, and transportation should stay informed about these opportunities, as they might have a better likelihood of receiving an ITA through these targeted draws.
Conclusion
In summary, while 2024 has seen more varied and frequent draws, the overall number of ITAs has decreased compared to the same period in 2023. To achieve its immigration goals, IRCC may need to adjust its approach in the second half of the year. The introduction of category-based selections and other strategies by IRCC appear to be influencing these trends.
As we move forward, the frequency and size of draws will likely increase to meet the year’s immigration targets. For candidates, staying informed and continuously improving their CRS scores remains essential in navigating the evolving Express Entry landscape.
